Polish Central Bank Survey Points to 3.1% Inflation in 2026

The National Bank of Poland's latest survey of professional forecasters puts inflation at 3.1% for 2026, giving policymakers a fresh marker for how quickly price growth is expected to settle. The figure comes from the central bank's regular poll of economists, which it uses to shape its own projections.

A reading near 3% would sit modestly above the middle of the central bank's inflation target, which is set at 2.5% with a tolerance band of one percentage point in either direction. That leaves the forecast inside the acceptable range but short of the midpoint that rate-setters typically treat as comfort.

For monetary policy, the survey feeds into expectations for borrowing costs. If economists broadly see inflation holding near 3%, the case for rapid easing weakens, supporting the zloty and keeping short-term bond yields anchored while investors wait for the bank's next projections.

Forecasts of this kind are conditional. Energy prices, wage growth, fiscal policy and global demand can all push Polish inflation away from the surveyed path, and the central bank's own staff projection may differ. The survey therefore serves as a snapshot of sentiment rather than a commitment.